30-04-2020, 06:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 30-04-2020, 06:17 PM by Colin Wilks.)
Posting this as a counterpoint to Tony's rather happy percentages.
UK Population (2018) 66,270,000
Proportion over 65 years 11.58% (7,674,066)
Covid-19 fatality % in over 65s 10% approx (range is 3.41% to 15.9%)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30257-7/fulltext
Unless exponential spread is prevented (i.e. every carrier infects less than one other person) some 750,000 UK over 65s would die in the first wave, which means about 90% survive.
I think this proportion, which is neither high nor low, is the nub of our problem, 9 out of 10 is not bad odds if you're a glass half full sort of bloke; by way of comparison the fatality rate for SARS in over 65s is well over 50%, so you really do not want that.
We are currently shielding a vulnerable relative, so we only leave the house to drive to hospital and back (and I can't get to my workshop). To be frank, agonising over whether to take the seven or the fiesta to the shops seems like a very high class problem!
If I did have the choice to make, I think I would take the fiesta since to take the seven could look like gallivanting, and if two of the people who see me decide they too deserve a bit of a jolly, well we're back to our old friend exponential growth. On reflection, probably ok to take the seven so long as you don't smile too much!
Looking at these numbers, you can see why Dominic Cummings apparently felt herd immunity at the cost of a few oldies snuffing it was a good bet, and if you're a cynic you might think he could well have seen it as a bit of a result. Today's Oscarism: Cynic - "A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing". (Lady Windermere's Fan)
UK Population (2018) 66,270,000
Proportion over 65 years 11.58% (7,674,066)
Covid-19 fatality % in over 65s 10% approx (range is 3.41% to 15.9%)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30257-7/fulltext
Unless exponential spread is prevented (i.e. every carrier infects less than one other person) some 750,000 UK over 65s would die in the first wave, which means about 90% survive.
I think this proportion, which is neither high nor low, is the nub of our problem, 9 out of 10 is not bad odds if you're a glass half full sort of bloke; by way of comparison the fatality rate for SARS in over 65s is well over 50%, so you really do not want that.
We are currently shielding a vulnerable relative, so we only leave the house to drive to hospital and back (and I can't get to my workshop). To be frank, agonising over whether to take the seven or the fiesta to the shops seems like a very high class problem!
If I did have the choice to make, I think I would take the fiesta since to take the seven could look like gallivanting, and if two of the people who see me decide they too deserve a bit of a jolly, well we're back to our old friend exponential growth. On reflection, probably ok to take the seven so long as you don't smile too much!
Looking at these numbers, you can see why Dominic Cummings apparently felt herd immunity at the cost of a few oldies snuffing it was a good bet, and if you're a cynic you might think he could well have seen it as a bit of a result. Today's Oscarism: Cynic - "A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing". (Lady Windermere's Fan)